“春节错位”下的“弱通胀”

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in inflation readings is attributed to the misalignment of the Spring Festival, and even after excluding this effect, the actual levels remain weak [2][10]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - In February, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, influenced by the high base effect from the previous year when the Spring Festival occurred in February [2][10]. - The food CPI fell by 0.5%, with fresh vegetables and pork prices decreasing by 3.8% and 1.9% respectively, reflecting a supply increase due to favorable weather and improved livestock inventory [10][11]. - The core service CPI saw a month-on-month decline of 0.8%, with travel-related prices dropping significantly, including a 22.6% decrease in airfares and a 9.6% drop in tourism prices [3][17]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month in February, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, which was below market expectations [12][14]. - The rise in international oil prices contributed positively to the PPI, while coal prices fell significantly, leading to a negative impact on the overall PPI [12][13]. - The low capacity utilization in downstream industries continues to exert downward pressure on the PPI, with expectations of a relative "over-decline" phenomenon in the future [12][13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The supply-side constraints on inflation are expected to persist in the short term, and the impact of consumption-boosting policies may limit inflation recovery [13]. - In March, the CPI is likely to rebound above zero as the Spring Festival effects dissipate, but the actual recovery may be moderate due to sufficient supply and the "old-for-new" policy suppressing core CPI [13][14]. - The PPI is anticipated to remain under pressure due to low global oil inventories and potential demand suppression from tariff policies, with a projected year-on-year PPI midpoint of -1.2% by 2025 [5][13].