CPI“转负”，这次有何不同？（民生宏观陶川团队）

Core Viewpoint - The recent negative growth in both month-on-month and year-on-year CPI readings reflects a combination of fundamental economic conditions and short-term disturbances, with the early Spring Festival contributing to lower February CPI figures [1][2]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - February CPI showed a year-on-year decline of -0.7%, with food prices dropping by -3.3%, significantly impacted by fresh vegetable prices which fell by -12.6% [3]. - Extreme weather conditions in February contributed to the decline in CPI, particularly affecting vegetable prices, which saw a significant drop compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The core CPI turned negative for the first time in four years, indicating underlying demand issues, while PPI continued to show negative growth, suggesting persistent supply excess [1][2]. Group 2: PPI and Economic Structure - PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed, reflecting a shift in industrial structure towards higher technology content, with prices for non-ferrous metals rising while traditional sectors remain weak [4]. - The sluggish recovery in construction-related prices is linked to a delayed resumption of work post-holidays, indicating that growth stabilization efforts need to accelerate [4]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The government has acknowledged the need to address structural contradictions in key industries, suggesting that supply-side policies may be introduced to alleviate the ongoing decline in PPI [1].