进出口｜关税扰动对外贸的拖累开始显现（2025年1-2月）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs and reduced overseas restocking on China's export and import growth in early 2025, highlighting a significant decline in export growth rates and the influence of geopolitical factors on future trade dynamics [1][2][3]. Export Performance - In January-February 2025, China's export value (in USD) increased by 2.3% year-on-year, which is a decline of 8.4 percentage points compared to December 2024's growth of 10.7% [2]. - The export performance was below seasonal expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 60.9% compared to December 2024, while the average increase over the past five years was 66.2% [2]. - The decline in export growth is primarily attributed to U.S. tariffs, with the first round of a 10% tariff on February 4, 2025, negatively affecting the export container shipping price index [3]. Export Structure - The semiconductor industry significantly contributed to export growth, with integrated circuits and related products showing growth rates of 11.0% and 10.1%, respectively [4]. - Labor-intensive products, such as clothing and toys, experienced a notable decline in export growth, contributing a negative impact of 1.4 percentage points to the overall export growth [4]. Import Performance - In January-February 2025, China's import growth rate was -8.4%, a decline of 9.4 percentage points compared to the previous period, influenced by a decrease in domestic manufacturing activity and new tariffs on U.S. goods [5]. - The average PMI for domestic manufacturing was recorded at 49.65, indicating a decline from the previous quarter [5]. - Major commodities like crude oil and coal saw a decrease in import growth rates, while imports of automatic data processing equipment remained high at 54.4% [5]. Future Outlook - The second round of U.S. tariffs, effective March 4, 2025, is expected to further exacerbate the negative impact on China's exports [6]. - Geopolitical factors and the pace of overseas tariffs will be crucial variables affecting China's export growth in 2025, with potential changes in U.S.-China trade relations anticipated following the release of the "America First Trade Policy" memorandum in early April [6].