地产｜收购存量商品房的前景和影响

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Government Work Report emphasizes granting greater autonomy to city governments in the acquisition of existing residential properties, which is expected to enhance the scale of purchasable housing and alleviate issues related to non-performing assets for enterprises [1][2]. Summary by Sections Acquisition of Existing Residential Properties - The report highlights the need to revitalize existing land and commercial properties, allowing city governments more discretion in the acquisition process [2]. Constraints on Acquisition Progress - The slow progress in acquiring existing residential properties is attributed to three main constraints: funding limitations, usage restrictions, and pricing issues. As of the end of 2024, over 60 cities supported the acquisition, but only about 14 cities had projects implemented, totaling approximately 15,600 units [3]. - Funding constraints stem from tight local finances and low utilization rates of guaranteed housing re-loans, which stood at about 5% as of September 2024 [3]. - Usage constraints arise from limited demand for guaranteed housing, while pricing constraints are due to acquisition prices being set below the replacement cost of similar properties, leading to lower willingness from enterprises to sell [3]. Potential for Increased Acquisition Scale - If the three constraints are gradually relaxed, the scale of purchasable housing is expected to expand significantly. As of the end of 2024, the total area of unsold residential properties was approximately 75.33 million square meters, corresponding to a value of about 7.5 trillion yuan [4]. - The proposed issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds for 2025, along with other funding sources, could provide an estimated 500 billion to 600 billion yuan for housing acquisitions [4]. Benefits of Acquiring Existing Residential Properties - Acquiring existing residential properties can help alleviate non-performing asset issues for enterprises, enabling them to convert unsold inventory into quality land in core areas, thus improving overall asset quality and stabilizing future cash flows [5][6]. - The acquisition is also expected to help stabilize housing prices by reducing the potential for low-priced properties to flood the market, which could otherwise lead to further price declines. This stabilization can enhance consumer confidence and promote moderate price increases [7].