水泥｜基建需求稳步释放，错峰协同助推涨价

Core Viewpoint - The cement industry is experiencing a price surge driven by stable demand from infrastructure projects and coordinated supply-side measures, alongside a decline in coal costs that supports profit recovery [1][7]. Demand Side - The National People's Congress has increased fiscal funding, leading to a steady release of infrastructure demand. As of February 27, 2025, the national construction site resumption rate was 64.6%, with a labor arrival rate of 61.7% and a funding availability rate of 49.1% [3]. - Despite a slight year-on-year decline in construction site resumption rates post-Spring Festival, recent weeks have shown significant improvement. Predictions indicate a 35%-40% growth in small excavator sales in January-February 2025, supporting future construction demand [3]. - The government plans to increase the deficit ratio to around 4% and issue 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds, focusing on investment construction and debt resolution [3]. Supply Side - The staggered production shutdowns have been extended, with key regions like Zhejiang, Anhui, and Fujian experiencing increased shutdown durations compared to the previous year. As of February 27, 2025, the clinker inventory ratio was at 45%, down 23 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The average annual shutdown days for provinces with announced staggered production plans is projected to reach 189 days, indicating a potential for further reductions in supply pressure due to enhanced cooperation among enterprises [4]. Profitability - The average price of cement (P.O42.5, bulk) in January-February 2025 was 342.56 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.25 yuan/ton year-on-year. The decline in coal prices has further released profit margins, with the average price of thermal coal down by 172.16 yuan/ton [5]. - As of March 1, 2025, the national average cement price was 338.20 yuan/ton, up 18.50 yuan/ton from the previous year, indicating a high elasticity in gross profit for major companies due to recent price increases [5].