刚果（金）搅动全球钴矿江湖｜深度

Core Viewpoint - The recent cobalt export ban by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) aims to address the oversupply in the global cobalt market and stabilize prices, which have fallen below historical levels. This policy is expected to have significant implications for global cobalt prices and supply chains, potentially leading to structural adjustments in the cobalt market [1][2][6]. Group 1: Impact of DRC's Export Ban - The DRC announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports to manage the oversupply situation, which applies to all producers but does not affect production or copper exports [1][4]. - The cobalt price has been under pressure, dropping below $10 per pound, with hydroxide cobalt prices falling below $6 per pound, prompting the DRC's intervention [3][4]. - Following the announcement, shares of major Chinese cobalt companies surged, with increases of 27.50% for Tengyuan Cobalt, 18.24% for Huayou Cobalt, and 16.56% for Hanrui Cobalt, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01% during the same period [1]. Group 2: Cobalt Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global cobalt production is projected to increase by 21.8% in 2024, reaching 290,000 tons, with the DRC contributing 75.9% of this output [4]. - The DRC's government is concerned about the economic impact of falling cobalt prices, as cobalt exports account for over 40% of the country's foreign exchange income [5][6]. - The concentration of cobalt resources is high, with the top 10 mines, mostly located in the DRC, accounting for 78% of global supply [4]. Group 3: Future Cobalt Market Outlook - The DRC's export ban may lead to a structural adjustment in the global cobalt supply chain, pushing companies to seek alternative sources outside the DRC [7]. - Indonesian cobalt production is expected to rise significantly, with projects from Chinese companies like Huayou and Lygend contributing to this growth, potentially altering the global cobalt supply landscape [7][9]. - The demand for cobalt in battery production remains strong, particularly for ternary batteries, despite the rise of lithium iron phosphate batteries [23]. Group 4: Recycling and Domestic Supply - Cobalt recycling is becoming an important supplement to domestic cobalt supply in China, with significant growth expected in the recycling of retired lithium batteries [16][21]. - Companies like Grinm and Huayou are actively developing recycling capabilities, with Grinm reporting a recovery of over 8,000 tons of cobalt from recycled materials in 2023 [17][18]. - The increasing focus on recycling and the establishment of a robust recycling infrastructure may help mitigate the risks associated with cobalt supply dependency [21][24].