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半导体行业观察·2025-03-10 01:20

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. tariff war initiated by President Trump on the semiconductor industry, particularly the Taiwanese IC design firms, which are experiencing a surge in orders due to preemptive stockpiling by clients in response to potential tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff War - The Taiwanese IC design companies, including MediaTek, Novatek, Realtek, and Elan, are seeing increased orders primarily for TV, networking, and PC applications as clients prepare for potential tariffs [1]. - MediaTek expects its consolidated revenue for the current quarter to be between NT$140.8 billion and NT$151.8 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2% to 10% and a year-on-year growth of 6% to 14% [1]. - Novatek anticipates its revenue to be between NT$26 billion and NT$27.2 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.9% to 7.6% due to increased demand for consumer electronics [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Demand - Realtek is optimistic about its current quarter performance, driven by short-term inventory replenishment needs from clients and preemptive stockpiling due to tariff concerns [2]. - Elan reports that despite the traditional seasonal downturn in the first quarter, it expects stable revenue between NT$3 billion and NT$3.2 billion, with a gross margin of 48% to 51% [2]. - The demand for large-sized TVs and mid-to-high-end mobile products is increasing, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [2]. Group 3: AI and Cost Management - The IC design industry is actively targeting AI applications, with many products still produced using mature processes, which are currently seeing price adjustments that help reduce costs for IC design firms [3][4]. - MediaTek has capitalized on AI opportunities, with its flagship AI chip revenue doubling, contributing approximately $2 billion in revenue [4]. - The majority of IC design firms are focusing on mature processes, and with wafer foundries operating below full capacity, they are willing to negotiate prices, further aiding cost reduction and improving gross margins [4].