金属周报 | 关税扰动与需求预期博弈，金铜背后的多空叙事

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly optimistic about the improvement of European economic data and expectations of fiscal expansion, leading to a stronger Euro against the Dollar and a boost in gold and copper prices [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of Gold and Copper - Last week, COMEX gold rose by 1.76% and silver by 3.82%, while SHFE gold and silver increased by 1.1% and 2.48% respectively. COMEX copper and SHFE copper prices changed by +3.28% and +1.93% [2]. - COMEX copper prices showed a strong upward trend, with a notable divergence from the performance of US tech stocks, influenced by changing tariff policies and European demand recovery [5][6]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Multiple uncertainties, including fluctuating tariff policies and escalating geopolitical risks, are providing support for gold prices. Recent US non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, leading the Federal Reserve to hesitate on interest rate cuts [4][13]. - Gold prices rebounded quickly after a significant correction, supported by the chaotic geopolitical situation, tariff fluctuations, and concerns over US inflation [26]. Group 3: Copper Market Insights - The copper concentrate market is experiencing a decline in processing fees, with current prices fluctuating between -15 to -20 USD/ton due to supply and demand factors. Indonesia's approval of copper concentrate export policies has eased supply tensions [8][10]. - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories decreased to 370,900 tons, influenced by reduced imports and increased downstream purchasing demand [10][12]. Group 4: Precious Metals Market Overview - Gold and silver prices are fluctuating at high levels, with COMEX gold trading between 2866 and 2941 USD/oz and silver between 31.6 and 33.4 USD/oz. The geopolitical risks and tariff policy uncertainties are providing support for gold prices [13][15]. - The gold-silver ratio is trending downwards, indicating stronger performance in silver compared to gold [15]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The recent National People's Congress in China has led to a neutral impact on market expectations regarding fiscal policies. The macroeconomic data for February appears positive, suggesting potential upward movement for copper prices [26]. - The chaotic geopolitical landscape and concerns over inflation are expected to support a further increase in gold prices [26].