晨报｜牛市的烦恼

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a divergence between Hong Kong and A-shares, driven by the concentration of high-quality core assets in Hong Kong, particularly in sectors like internet, hard technology, smart vehicles, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Market Divergence - Investors face two main concerns: the bullish trend in Hong Kong stocks versus the volatility in A-shares, leading to performance discrepancies in institutional products [1] - Approximately 60% of public asset management products lack access to Hong Kong Stock Connect, and those that do have an average potential increase of 26.5% in their allowable investment in Hong Kong stocks [1] Strategy Paradigm Shift - The past three years were characterized as a macroeconomic boom, with macro volatility and policy responses being the main market drivers, leading to the adoption of barbell strategies [1] - In contrast, the current year is transitioning to a macroeconomic "small year," where policy direction is clearer, and marginal changes in macro and policy factors are less likely to drive market direction [1] Investment Themes - A-shares are expected to see concentrated themes in edge AI and high-energy density batteries, with significant catalysts anticipated in the second quarter [1] - Traditional core assets in A-shares are being cleared out, with potential operational turning points expected as the economy recovers [1] Performance Focus - The market is increasingly focusing on themes with high earnings certainty, particularly in sectors like military industry, low-altitude economy, and semiconductor advanced processes [3] - The upcoming increase in military spending in Europe and the gradual realization of capital expenditures by major internet companies are expected to boost related sectors [3] Economic and Fiscal Insights - The national economic development plan emphasizes nurturing emerging industries and adjusting supply-demand relationships, with a focus on infrastructure and manufacturing investment [5] - The fiscal budget report indicates a significant increase in broad fiscal spending, benefiting from the second set of accounts [5] Trade and Export Dynamics - The impact of U.S. tariffs is beginning to affect trade, with a notable decline in export growth rates, particularly in labor-intensive products [7] - The semiconductor industry is playing a crucial role in export dynamics, with geopolitical factors and tariff schedules being key variables for future export growth [7] Sector-Specific Developments - The cement industry is experiencing a price surge due to steady demand from infrastructure projects and coordinated supply-side measures [17] - The humanoid robot sector is poised for growth, with domestic control companies entering the market, indicating potential opportunities for incremental growth [19]