主题聚焦｜关注业绩确定性高的主题

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing high volatility with a faster rotation of themes, emphasizing the importance of fundamental certainty, particularly in previously low-positioned themes [1][2] Group 1: Market Environment - Following the successful conclusion of the national "Two Sessions," the market is now more focused on the specific implementation of policies [1][2] - The external environment is becoming increasingly complex, with heightened geopolitical uncertainties and an approaching earnings season, leading to a potential dulling of the tech sector's hot catalysts [1][2] - Assets with stronger earnings or order certainty and relatively low valuation levels are gaining sustained attention, particularly in the military, low-altitude economy, advanced semiconductor manufacturing, and AIDC themes [1][2] Group 2: Thematic Analysis - The market is expected to see differentiation within tech-related themes, influenced by liquidity indicators and market style characteristics [1][2] - Catalysts such as increased military spending in Europe may elevate global military expenditure expectations, while restrictions on AI chip exports from the U.S. could boost the domestic computing power industry [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on military and low-altitude themes, advanced semiconductor manufacturing, and AIDC, as these sectors are likely to benefit from improved order conditions and technological advancements [1][2] Group 3: External Factors - The U.S. has increased tariffs on Chinese imports, escalating global trade tensions, which may heighten market risk aversion [3] - European countries are increasing defense spending due to security concerns highlighted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with military budgets rising to 2.5%-4% of GDP in Eastern Europe and 2%-5% in major Western European nations [4] - The market is currently experiencing significant fluctuations, with a focus on sectors showing high earnings certainty, such as military, semiconductor equipment/materials, and AIDC [5] Group 4: Catalysts and Developments - Internet companies are gradually realizing capital expenditures, with Tencent expected to emphasize cloud business growth in its upcoming earnings report [6] - The expansion of European defense spending is likely to drive up military stock prices and may lead to a new arms race globally [6] - The upcoming global AI chip summit in San Francisco is anticipated to unveil innovations that could impact the computing power industry [6]