债市启明｜浅析后续降准时机

Core Viewpoint - The recent tight balance of funds reflects several underlying issues, including a long-term negative growth rate in the loan-to-deposit ratio and significant demand from commercial banks for medium to long-term liabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Funding Tightness - The funding rates have been high since the end of the holiday until the end of February, with rates exceeding the upper limit of the overnight reverse repurchase rate corridor [2]. - There is a persistent negative growth rate in the loan-to-deposit balance, with increasing differentiation in the deposit-raising capabilities of large and small banks [2]. - The issuance rates of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) for state-owned banks and city commercial banks have risen, leading to renewal pressures due to the narrowing interest rate spread [2]. Group 2: Central Bank's Monetary Policy - The central bank's recent "loose statement" and "steady operation" indicate a long-term "moderately loose" state, while short-term monetary tool operations require consideration of various factors [3]. - The central bank aims to maintain the "transmission efficiency" of monetary policy, with liquidity management potentially adjusting the curve shape [3]. - The central bank's medium to long-term liquidity provision is increasingly leaning towards buyout reverse repos, with a trend of shortening the duration of monetary tools [3]. Group 3: March Liquidity Outlook - The liquidity gap in March is expected to narrow significantly compared to January and February, with government debt net financing pressure easing [4]. - City commercial banks and joint-stock banks face the highest renewal pressure for certificates of deposit in the first quarter, which may keep issuance rates elevated [4]. - The central bank's liquidity provision strategy may lead to a structural "long money" gap, with a focus on the potential for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut between the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter [5].