【石油化工】OPEC+将开启增产，地缘政治风险犹存——行业周报第393期（20250303-0309）（赵乃迪/蔡嘉豪/王礼沫）

Group 1 - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by approximately 130,000 barrels per day starting from April 2025, with a total increase of 1.23 million barrels per day by the end of 2025 and 2.46 million barrels per day by the end of 2026 [3] - The recent geopolitical uncertainties, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential new sanctions from the U.S. against Russia, are expected to enhance short-term oil price volatility [4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 to 1.1 million barrels per day, indicating a positive outlook for oil demand [5] Group 2 - As of March 7, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices were reported at $70.45 and $67.05 per barrel, reflecting a decline of 3.6% and 4.1% respectively from the previous week [2] - The IEA predicts that global oil supply will increase by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2025, suggesting a potential oversupply of 450,000 barrels per day even if OPEC+ maintains current production levels [3] - The marginal cost of U.S. shale oil production is approximately $64 per barrel, which is expected to influence oil price stabilization in the medium to long term [5]