光大证券研究·2025-03-10 09:08Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of livestock and agricultural product prices, highlighting the stability of pig prices, the increase in poultry prices, and the fluctuations in grain prices, indicating a mixed outlook for the agricultural sector [3][4][5]. Livestock Prices - As of March 7, the average price of external three yuan pigs was 14.50 yuan/kg, remaining stable week-on-week, while the average price of 15 kg piglets decreased by 0.76% to 32.76 yuan/kg [3]. - The average weight of market pigs increased by 0.54 kg to 127.06 kg, and the cold storage capacity of slaughterhouses rose by 0.50 percentage points to 13.32%, indicating a rising inventory level [3]. - Despite ongoing replenishment supporting stable pig prices, weak demand due to the end of school and work preparations poses significant resistance to price increases [3]. Poultry Prices - As of March 7, the price of live chickens was 6.59 yuan/kg, up 8.03% week-on-week, and the price of chick seedlings was 2.54 yuan/chick, up 10.92% [4]. - The seasonal price increase for live chickens is supported by stocking up for the new school term, although the profitability of slaughter enterprises has narrowed, reducing their willingness to purchase [4]. - The rebound in meat chicken prices has led to increased orders for chick seedlings, with large-scale breeding farms maintaining prices, resulting in a continuous rise in chick prices [4]. Agricultural Products - As of March 7, the average spot price of corn was 2229.12 yuan/ton, up 0.5% week-on-week, while soybean meal and wheat prices fell by 2.16% and 0.4%, respectively [5]. - The tightening supply and favorable policies have supported the upward trend in corn prices, while the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America and weak market demand have pressured soybean meal prices [5]. - The domestic natural rubber price was 17475 yuan/ton, down 1.08%, with high operating rates in downstream tire enterprises but high finished product inventories suppressing raw material replenishment demand [5].