中金：中美的“两本账”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of DeepSeek and Trump's tariffs on global asset volatility, investor sentiment, and the macroeconomic narrative between China and the U.S. It highlights the interconnection between AI trends and tariff policies, emphasizing their influence on the financial and current accounts of both economies [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Economic and Asset Trends - The U.S. has maintained a long-term current account deficit while achieving financial account surpluses, primarily due to low savings rates and the dollar's privileged status [2][3]. - Since the pandemic, fiscal expansion has led to an increase in the current account deficit, while the AI trend has attracted capital inflows, supporting the dollar and the economy [2][4]. - The financial account's inflow is crucial for the U.S. economy, with AI being a key driver of this trend, especially since 2023 [2][20]. Group 2: China’s Economic Dynamics - China has experienced a long-term current account surplus since joining the WTO, but its financial account has seen capital outflows, indicating a reliance on external demand [13][18]. - The current economic model in China, which relies on current account surpluses for growth, faces challenges due to external pressures such as tariffs and weakening external demand [23][24]. - The need for domestic demand stimulation and structural reforms is emphasized to counterbalance the external challenges and attract capital inflows [23][24]. Group 3: Interconnection of U.S. and China Accounts - The article outlines how the financial account (AI) and current account (tariffs) are interconnected, with the financial account's performance being critical for future economic trends in both countries [20][22]. - For the U.S., the sustainability of capital inflows is contingent on the strength of the AI sector, while for China, the focus should be on stimulating domestic demand to improve the financial account [20][22]. - The potential for a shift in the global investment landscape is highlighted, with the AI narrative playing a pivotal role in determining the flow of capital between the two economies [20][22].