华尔街先知Ed Yardeni：华尔街耐心快耗光了，市场或许重演1987年的闪电崩盘

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is likely to continue its sell-off pattern, with concerns about the impact of Trump's tariff plans on the economy and market stability [1] Group 1 - Ed Yardeni, a prominent bull, has adjusted his outlook, suggesting that a bear market may have started on February 20, the day after the S&P 500 reached a record high [1] - Yardeni has increased the probability of a U.S. recession and stock market bear market from 20% to 35%, citing significant tests to consumer and economic resilience due to market declines [1] - The potential for a "lightning crash" similar to those in 1962 and 1987 is highlighted, which could provide buying opportunities for previously overvalued stocks that have now declined [1] Group 2 - Yardeni predicts that the stock market will experience volatility in the first half of the year, with a potential return to record levels in the second half [2] - The probability of a sustained bull market until 2025 without adjustments or bear markets has decreased from 80% to 65% [2] - Long-term projections for a continued bull market into the 2030s remain at 55%, contingent on the absence of worsening trade conflicts [2] Group 3 - Concerns are raised about the lack of support from the Federal Reserve, as Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates [2] - Insider buying has been observed in cyclical sectors such as energy, technology, banking, industrials, and biotechnology, indicating potential buying opportunities [2] - Market analysis suggests that the S&P 500 could rebound to approximately 5950-6000 points, reflecting a 3-4% increase from the previous week's closing price [2]