美股在跌什么？（民生宏观陶川团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the NASDAQ index, which has dropped 13% over the past four weeks, indicating concerns of an economic recession driven by tightening liquidity and weakening economic data [1] Economic Data and Trends - The Atlanta Fed has revised its Q1 GDP forecast from +3.9% to -2.4%, primarily due to declines in consumer spending and net exports [1] - Retail sales and actual personal consumption expenditure growth in January were significantly below expectations, with the proportion of credit card loans overdue by more than 90 days reaching a new high since 2012 [2] - The ISM manufacturing PMI new orders index fell by 6.5%, indicating a reversal in corporate new orders after a strong rebound post-election [2] Impact of Trump's Policies - Trump's policies are seen as having five major negative impacts on the economy: tariffs, immigration, layoffs, spending cuts, and "verbal expectation guidance" [2] - Tariffs on Mexico and Canada are predicted to significantly impact the economy, with a potential inflation increase of 0.86 percentage points by 2025 and a GDP reduction of about 0.1 percentage points [2] - Immigration policies have softened since the election, focusing mainly on deporting illegal immigrants with criminal records [3] Layoffs and Spending Cuts - The original target for spending cuts was $2 trillion, now revised to $1 trillion, with over 10,000 federal employees already laid off [4] - The layoffs are expected to have a ripple effect on state and local governments, as well as the education and healthcare sectors [4] Market Sentiment and Expectations - Trump's administration has been intentionally releasing negative expectations to guide the economy, suggesting that short-term discomfort may be acceptable for long-term structural transformation [5][6] - The trade deficit has reached a new high, which may also negatively impact Q1 GDP [7] Liquidity Concerns - The article highlights increasing liquidity pressures in the U.S. stock market, exacerbated by the Fed's balance sheet reduction and declining overnight reverse repo balances [11] - There is a noticeable shift in capital flows, with funds moving away from U.S. equities towards non-U.S. markets, particularly in China and Europe [11] Future Strategies - To counter recession expectations, the administration may focus on increasing private sector investment and expediting tax cuts to boost market confidence [13][14] - The Fed may be pressured to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, potentially ending quantitative tightening or even restarting quantitative easing [16] Investment Outlook - The article proposes a four-quadrant framework for investment strategies based on the interplay between European fiscal expansion and U.S. recession expectations [18] - Continued U.S. recession expectations alongside European fiscal expansion may lead to a bearish outlook for the dollar and U.S. equities, favoring non-U.S. markets [18]