读研报 | 当“美国例外论”不再那么丝滑

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, highlighting recent market trends and economic indicators that suggest a shift in investor confidence towards the U.S. economy and its stock market performance [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 10, U.S. stock indices collectively fell, with the Nasdaq dropping 4%, marking the largest single-day decline since September 2022 [2]. - Since 2025, U.S. stocks have underperformed compared to non-U.S. indices, raising questions about the sustainability of the "American exceptionalism" narrative [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data shows that the U.S. composite PMI has cooled significantly compared to other major economies, while Europe and Japan show signs of recovery [3]. - Despite concerns, the U.S. economy is not in a state of true recession, as household balance sheets remain healthy and corporate cash flows are strong [4]. Group 3: Technological and Geopolitical Factors - The dominance of U.S. technology, particularly in AI, is being challenged by new entrants like DeepSeek, which could lead to a reevaluation of global tech assets [3]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating tariffs are creating additional challenges for U.S. companies [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Investors may need to reassess the "American exceptionalism" narrative and adjust their regional allocation strategies, which may take time [5]. - For domestic markets, external factors are not the sole determinants; ongoing policies to stabilize the stock and real estate markets are crucial for addressing economic slowdowns [5].