中金点睛·2025-03-11 23:39Core Viewpoint - The Chinese hotel industry in 2024 is expected to face "weak expectations" realization and an imbalance in supply and demand. However, there are potential opportunities in the South China market, hotel product renewal demands, and the growth potential of leading brands in lower-tier markets [1][5][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The competition landscape in South China is evolving, with some latecomers gaining market share, leveraging core brands to penetrate the region effectively. Continuous monitoring of penetration progress and market share growth is recommended [1][11]. - The hotel product renewal demand is changing, with an increasing proportion of hotels aged 6-10 years across major groups by the end of 2024 compared to the end of 2023. This trend indicates a potential rise in the number of hotels needing renovation in the next 1-2 years, leading to possible shifts in brand competition dynamics [1][25][26]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Changes - The hotel industry's supply-demand relationship has undergone significant changes from 2023 to 2024. Initially, there was a "supply shortage" due to pandemic impacts, followed by a recovery phase where demand surged, attracting more investors and increasing supply. However, demand has shown signs of divergence, with leisure travel continuing while business travel remains slow to recover [5][7][8]. - The overall RevPAR for the Chinese hotel industry is projected to decline by approximately 5% year-on-year in 2024, reflecting a cautious market outlook influenced by high base effects and slow recovery in business travel demand [5][7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape in South China - The existing competitive landscape shows that major groups like Jinjiang and Eastern Group have a significant presence in South China, with approximately 20% and 40% of their hotels located in the region, respectively. In contrast, Huazhu has a weaker presence, with only about 6% of its hotels in South China [11][12][19]. - There is still potential for brand updates and renovations in the South China market, with a notable percentage of hotels needing upgrades. Continuous observation of the competitive dynamics and brand selection for these renovations is advised [12][19]. Group 4: Product Renewal and Aging Issues - The aging of hotel products is becoming more pronounced, particularly in the economy and light management segments. Major brands are facing increasing pressure to renovate or update their offerings, with a significant portion of their hotels aged 6-10 years [25][30][33]. - The current market presents four potential paths for franchisees with aging products: upgrading existing brands, switching to leading brands, opting for soft brands with lower investment, or maintaining the status quo, which may lead to declining profitability [27][30].