存款利率5年不如1年？业内人士：或将继续下行

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "inverted" deposit interest rates is becoming increasingly evident among both regional small banks and large banks in China, indicating a significant shift in the banking sector's interest rate strategies [1][4][8]. Group 1: Inverted Deposit Rates - Many banks, including major ones like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China Construction Bank, and China Merchants Bank, are experiencing inverted deposit rates, where short-term deposit rates exceed long-term ones [1][4]. - For instance, the three-year deposit rate at China Construction Bank is 1.9%, while the five-year rate is 1.55%, showcasing this inversion [4]. - The phenomenon is not limited to smaller banks; even large banks are adjusting their rates, reflecting a broader trend in the banking industry [4][8]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Implications - Experts predict that market interest rates are likely to continue declining, which is influencing banks to lower long-term deposit rates to avoid locking in high-cost funds [8][9]. - The increasing occurrence of inverted rates suggests a consensus in the market regarding the downward trend of interest rates [8]. - In a competitive banking environment, banks are adjusting their deposit rate strategies to attract customers, with short-term rate adjustments aimed at gaining market share and long-term adjustments focused on optimizing liability structures [8][10]. Group 3: Recommendations for Investors - Investors are advised to lower their expectations for investment returns and consider diversifying their portfolios with a mix of financial products that vary in liquidity, yield, and safety [9][10]. - The recommendation includes maintaining a portion of insurance products as foundational assets in personal investment strategies [9].