冈峰大宗专栏：金价美汇齐转弱 美股下跌或许尚未正式开始

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is expected to weaken starting in 2025, with the S&P 500 index down 1.7% and the Nasdaq down 5.6% year-to-date. Concurrently, funds are taking profits in gold, which has seen a cooling off after a strong performance. [2][18] Group 1: Market Trends - The CFTC data indicates that gold long positions have decreased by 15% from their peak five weeks ago, while short positions have surged by 520% from their lowest point seven weeks ago. [2][18] - The Euro gold price momentum has weakened, with European funds shifting investments from gold to military stocks due to increased military spending needs. [2][18] - Unlike previous trends, the decline in U.S. stocks has not negatively impacted global markets, with European and Hong Kong stocks remaining strong. [2][18] Group 2: Commodity Fund Positions - As of March 4, 2023, the net long position in COMEX gold has dropped to 568 tons, a decrease of 6.1% from the previous week, marking the lowest level in nine weeks. [3][5] - The net long position in COMEX silver has increased to 5,319 tons, with a 3.7% rise from the previous week, continuing a streak of 53 weeks in net long territory. [3][5] - The net long position in Nymex platinum has fallen to 4 tons, the lowest in five weeks, while the net short position in Nymex palladium remains at 35 tons, indicating a prolonged bearish sentiment. [3][6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Dollar Index has decreased by 5.6% from its peak of 109.96 on January 13 to 103.838 at the time of writing. [2][19] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at their current levels during the March meeting, with a 97% probability of no change. [14] - There is speculation that the first interest rate cut may occur between May and July 2025, depending on economic conditions. [14][15] Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for a significant downturn in the U.S. stock market in 2025 is highlighted, with expectations of reduced government spending and geopolitical risks. [22] - The article suggests that if the U.S. begins to cut interest rates while inflation pressures resurface, it could create a challenging environment for the Federal Reserve. [21][22] - The overall sentiment indicates that 2024 may be the last good year for copper, with expectations of a significant decline thereafter unless substantial infrastructure investments occur. [10][22]