Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that companies suffering from internal issues will only accelerate their decline if they do not undergo transformation, suggesting that being listed can exacerbate existing problems rather than solve them [1][18]. Company Overview - Hong Jiu Fruit Products was suspended from trading last year due to failure to release financial reports, and a year later, Baiguoyuan was removed from the Hong Kong Stock Connect and the Hang Seng Composite Index [2][3]. - On March 10, Baiguoyuan's stock plummeted by 22.54%, with its market value dropping to less than 1.7 billion [4]. Financial Performance - The primary reason for Baiguoyuan's stock decline was the profit warning issued by the group, predicting a loss of 350-400 million for 2024, compared to a profit of 362 million in 2023 [5]. Market Dynamics - The narrative of "listing as the peak" has been prevalent in the new consumption sector, driven by challenges in consumer spending post-mask era and the rush to achieve performance before IPOs, leading to inflated valuations [7]. - Baiguoyuan's franchise store count decreased from 6,081 to 5,116, a drop of 15.87%, indicating a significant loss of franchisee confidence [9]. Management and Strategy Issues - Baiguoyuan's management has been criticized for several errors leading to a decline in corporate value, including: 1. Ignoring product quality and food safety, resulting in frequent complaints [10]. 2. Blind expansion with low operational efficiency, neglecting store profitability [10]. 3. Poor supply chain management, leading to cash flow issues [10]. 4. Insufficient digital capabilities compared to competitors [10]. 5. Disregarding member value, with a loss of 100,000 paid members in the first half of 2024 [10]. 6. Ineffective pricing strategy due to intense competition in the fresh produce sector [10]. 7. Cash flow difficulties, with accounts receivable exceeding 1 billion and significant provisions for losses [13]. 8. Weak e-commerce performance, with no significant improvement in local business [14]. 9. Loss of corporate culture and talent, leading to high turnover [10]. 10. Erosion of shareholder confidence, as management and major shareholders sold off shares during stock price declines [10]. Future Outlook - The company announced a strategic shift towards high cost-performance in August 2024, but this strategy has not shown positive results and may worsen the situation for the company and its franchisees [11][12]. - The article suggests that addressing supply chain management issues is crucial for recovery, as fruit procurement costs account for over 95% of total costs [15][16].
“上市即颠峰”成为港股消费股的“宿命”
阿尔法工场研究院·2025-03-12 13:11