【宏观】三个维度观察当前市场情绪——《光大投资时钟》第二十三篇（高瑞东/王佳雯）

Core Viewpoints - Since the beginning of the year, the equity market has performed well, but there is still structural differentiation, with the technology sector leading due to frequent catalysts, while the cyclical sectors remain divided [3] - The upcoming earnings season until April may significantly influence market sentiment due to insufficient guidance from profit data [3] Market Sentiment Analysis From Volume and Price Indicators - Trading sentiment is high but not overheated, with a high turnover rate that is slowing down, and 80% of stocks exceeding their average price over the past year [4] - The concentration of trading in leading stocks has increased rapidly but is not at an extreme level, and the proportion of stocks reaching new highs is currently low [4] From Fund Indicators - There is still room for funds to enter, as margin financing balances and buying amounts have risen sharply, with the proportion of financing buying reaching historical highs [5] - The environment for fund issuance is improving, but there has not yet been significant scale expansion [5] From Valuation Indicators - Stock valuations have increased, with a decline in the price-performance ratio of the stock market, while the equity market remains strong relative to the bond market [6] - The 60-day average of the equity-bond yield spread is at a high level compared to the past two years, indicating a relative attractiveness of the stock market [6] Summary of Market Characteristics - The stock market's rise since the Spring Festival is characterized by a strong structural performance in the technology sector, with many stocks still in an adjustment phase [9] - Leveraged funds and public funds have rapidly increased their positions, reflecting their optimistic sentiment, but the continuation of the rally may require more incremental capital inflow [9]