中金：消费还有多大空间？

Core Viewpoint - China's consumption as a percentage of GDP is relatively low compared to other economies, with significant potential for growth, particularly in service consumption, which is expected to outpace goods consumption in the future [2][4][27]. Group 1: Consumption and GDP Ratio - China's total private and government consumption as a percentage of GDP is 56% in 2023, which is lower than that of high GDP per capita economies like the US, Japan, Germany, and South Korea [6][8]. - The low consumption ratio is attributed to a lower share of service consumption in GDP, which is a common trend in less developed economies [5][10]. - The manufacturing sector's strength, with a manufacturing value added to GDP ratio of 26.2% in 2023, does not fully explain the low consumption ratio, as historical data from other manufacturing-heavy countries shows higher consumption ratios [7][9]. Group 2: Service vs. Goods Consumption - Service consumption in China is significantly lower than in developed economies, with a service consumption to GDP ratio below 30% compared to higher ratios in the US, Japan, Germany, and South Korea [10][12]. - The analysis indicates that while goods consumption is relatively aligned with global averages, service consumption is lagging, suggesting a greater potential for growth in service sectors [10][11]. Group 3: Price Levels and Consumption - The absolute price levels in China are generally lower than in developed economies, but this does not adequately explain the low consumption ratio, as relative price adjustments show that service prices are comparatively lower [13][15]. - Adjusting for GDP per capita reveals that China's relative price indices for services are lower than those of developed economies, indicating a potential underestimation of consumption [22][24]. Group 4: Future Consumption Potential - The potential for consumption growth in China is substantial, particularly in services such as healthcare, entertainment, and education, while goods consumption is expected to focus more on quality upgrades [27][28]. - Structural reforms, including improvements in social security and labor compensation, are crucial for enhancing consumption levels [37].