中金：美国通胀降温映射需求放缓

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that both core and total CPI inflation in the U.S. fell in February, below market expectations, indicating a weakening economic demand and potential for continued inflation suppression in the future [1][3][6]. Inflation Data Summary - In February, the seasonally adjusted core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.4% the previous month, and year-on-year decreased from 3.3% to 3.1%. Total CPI also saw a month-on-month decline from 0.5% to 0.2% and a year-on-year drop from 3% to 2.8%, both below market expectations [3][6]. - Oil prices have significantly decreased, with Brent crude falling from $80 per barrel on January 20 to $69, contributing to a 1% month-on-month decline in gasoline prices in February. This decline is attributed to easing geopolitical tensions and reduced demand due to government spending cuts [3][4]. - Airline ticket prices dropped by 4% month-on-month, reflecting weakened demand, as major U.S. airlines have lowered their profit forecasts due to a soft macro environment [3][4]. Core Services and Housing Market - The supercore price index, excluding rent, saw a month-on-month increase drop from 0.8% to 0.2%. Hospital service prices fell from 0.9% to 0.1%, and auto rental prices shifted from a 1.7% increase to a 1.3% decrease [4][6]. - Rent prices remained stable with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, and leading indicators suggest no upward pressure on rents, indicating that the housing market is unlikely to contribute to inflation in 2025 [4][6]. Core Goods and Tariff Impact - Core goods prices saw a decrease in growth from 0.3% to 0.2%. Used car prices fell from a 2.2% increase to 0.9%, while new car prices turned negative at -0.1%, indicating a potential end to replacement demand due to past disasters [5][6]. - Concerns over tariffs remain, with plans for increased tariffs on a broader range of imports, which could create uncertainty in future pricing for consumer goods [5][6]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the slowdown in U.S. demand may help suppress inflation, but uncertainties surrounding tariffs could complicate this path. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance and may not lower interest rates until the third quarter [6][7].