小阳春系列 | 上海高端、深圳中改、广州刚需成交领跑

Core Viewpoint - The new housing market in major cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced a strong start in 2025, with February transaction volumes leading and cumulative year-on-year growth exceeding 20% in the first two months. The driving factors for this growth vary by city [1][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first two months of 2025, the market continued to stabilize, with transaction volumes in 100 cities remaining roughly flat compared to the same period last year. However, 16 key cities showed cumulative year-on-year growth [2]. - The new housing transaction volume in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of around 30% in the first two months [3]. - The average monthly transaction volume in Shanghai and Guangzhou for the first two months of 2025 is significantly lower than the monthly averages for 2024 and 2023, while Shenzhen's average monthly transaction volume is 17% higher than that of 2023, indicating signs of market stabilization [4]. Group 2: Price Segments - In terms of transaction price segments, Guangzhou's market is driven by demand for properties priced below 2 million, while Shenzhen saw significant growth in the 2-4 million segment [6]. - In Shanghai, the high-end purchasing power remains strong, with the proportion of transactions in the 10-30 million price range increasing from 19.47% in 2024 to 22.79% in 2025, a rise of 3.32 percentage points. Conversely, the mid-range segment (6-8 million) saw the most significant decline [7]. - In Shenzhen, the proportion of transactions in the 2-4 million segment accounted for nearly 30% of total transactions, with an increase of 3.76 percentage points [7]. Group 3: Area Segments - In terms of area segments, Guangzhou saw a notable increase in the proportion of transactions for properties sized 80-90 square meters, while Shenzhen experienced significant growth in the 100-120 square meter segment [9]. - The 100-120 square meter segment in Shenzhen increased from 19.75% in 2024 to 22.75% in 2025, catering to the demand for three-bedroom units that meet the needs of buyers looking for a "one-step" upgrade [10]. Group 4: Regional Distribution - The transaction proportions in secondary core areas of Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have increased, with notable growth in Yangpu District (Shanghai), Yuexiu District (Guangzhou), and Pingshan District (Shenzhen) [12]. - For instance, the transaction proportion in Guangzhou's Yuexiu District surged from less than 1% in 2024 to 2.78% in the first two months of 2025, driven by the concentrated supply of new projects [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The short-term outlook suggests that Shanghai's new housing transactions have not yet recovered to the levels seen in 2023-2024, with future transaction volumes largely dependent on the quality of new housing supply. Shenzhen is expected to see further release of purchasing power due to new policies, while Guangzhou's current transaction growth is primarily attributed to a low base from the previous year, with sustainability still in question [15].