CPI会否助长滞胀担忧？华尔街恐陷入“双输”局面！

Core Viewpoint - Economists predict that inflation in the U.S. remains high, indicating stagnation in the Federal Reserve's efforts to control prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to rise by 0.3% in February, slowing the year-on-year growth from 3% to 2.9% [3][4]. Inflation Trends - The CPI rose by 0.5% at the beginning of the year, and the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to increase by 0.3%, down from 0.4% the previous month, with a year-on-year growth decrease from 3.3% to 3.2% [3][4]. - Concerns about persistent inflation and slowing economic growth raise fears of stagflation, with significant stock market declines attributed to uncertainties from trade wars initiated by Trump [4]. Food Prices - Food prices in the U.S. have surged due to the spread of avian influenza, leading to record-high egg prices, with expectations that this trend will continue [6]. - Economists from Morgan Stanley anticipate that wholesale food prices will continue to rise, with grocery inflation expected to remain above pre-pandemic trends throughout the summer [6]. Service Costs - A key service cost indicator is expected to ease after a significant rise in January, with "super core" service inflation projected to slow due to declines in airfare and medical costs [7]. - Economists are closely monitoring housing costs, which remain a stubborn category in the CPI, with expectations of a 0.27% increase in housing prices month-on-month, a slowdown from January [7]. Tariff Impacts - Some economists expect the February report to show early signs of tariff impacts, with strong inflation data potentially driven by tariffs imposed by Trump in early February [9][10]. - The Federal Reserve is cautious about inflation reaching target levels, with discussions around tariffs influencing perceptions of recent inflation [10]. Market Reactions - Easing inflation data may bolster trader expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the market now anticipating three 25 basis point cuts this year, compared to two cuts previously [12]. - Recent disappointing economic data has led to a negative GDP growth forecast for the first quarter, affecting market sentiment and leading to cautious trading behavior [13]. Gold Market Dynamics - The focus on inflation data may have short-term effects on gold prices, with traders reacting to fluctuations in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [14]. - Analysts note that if U.S. CPI data exceeds expectations, it could lead to selling pressure on gold, with key support levels identified at $2880 and $2850 [14].