纳斯达克暴跌的三大原因

Group 1 - The overall forward P/E ratio and median of the US stock market reached the highest level in 22 years (excluding the pandemic bubble period) by early 2025, indicating extreme market optimism and a significant valuation bubble, particularly among the "Seven Sisters" (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, etc.), whose market capitalization accounts for nearly 60% of US GDP, far exceeding reasonable levels [1][2] - The proportion of financial assets allocated to stocks by US households reached a historical high of 43.4%, indicating that market risk tolerance has reached its limit, with excessive capital concentration in tech giants leading to high liquidity dependence on a few companies [2] Group 2 - DeepSeek's innovative MLA architecture and MoE Sparse structure reduced model training costs to 5% of that of international giants, with inference capabilities comparable to top models like GPT-4o, undermining Nvidia's chip scarcity and directly impacting the core profit logic of the US AI industry, which relies on high capital investment to create barriers [3][4] - The global competitive landscape is being restructured as DeepSeek demonstrates that computational power embargoes do not constitute absolute barriers, weakening the US's technological advantage and shifting global AI discourse from a US-centric model to a more diversified competition [4] Group 3 - Trump's signing of a memorandum on tariffs related to digital taxes and the imposition of tariffs on Mexico and Canada raised concerns about global supply chain stability, causing companies like Apple to commit to shifting their supply chains to avoid tariff impacts, resulting in a decline of over 6.6% in the S&P 500 and over 10% in the Nasdaq [5][6] - The contradiction in Trump's "America First" policy, which aims to rebuild manufacturing while relying on robots to replace labor, has led to rising unemployment and structural imbalances in job creation, further complicating market expectations and increasing risk aversion [6][7] Group 4 - The failure of Trump's $500 billion AI investment plan (Stargate) due to DeepSeek's low-cost path has diminished global capital confidence in the US AI industry, compounded by rising credit risk indicators in the US, leading investors to worry that policy uncertainty will undermine economic fundamentals [7][8] - The recent Nasdaq decline is attributed to a confluence of factors: the fragile valuation bubble of tech giants under interest rate risks, the direct disruption of AI valuation logic by DeepSeek's technological breakthrough, and the exacerbation of market uncertainties by Trump's policies, prompting a shift of funds from overvalued tech stocks to defensive sectors [8]