【广发宏观陈嘉荔】美国2月通胀降温下海外市场risk off情绪有所缓和

Core Viewpoint - The overall inflation data in the US for February 2025 shows a cooling trend, with CPI year-on-year dropping to 2.8% from 3% in the previous month, and core CPI decreasing to 3.1% from 3.3% [1][5][7] Inflation Data Summary - February CPI year-on-year decreased to 2.8%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, compared to 0.5% in January [1][5] - Core CPI year-on-year fell to 3.1%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, down from 0.4% [1][7] - Seasonal effects from January led to overestimated price increases for certain goods and services, which are expected to reverse in subsequent data [1][8] Housing Price Trends - The growth rate of housing prices has slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in February, down from 0.4% in January [2][9] - Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER) and primary residence rent both stabilized at a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [2][9] - New tenant lease prices have turned negative year-on-year, indicating a low probability of rebound in primary residence rent [10] Supercore Inflation Insights - Supercore inflation (excluding housing) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.22%, significantly lower than the previous value of 0.76% [2][10] - Major contributors to this slowdown include declines in airfares and auto insurance prices [2][10] Core Goods Price Movements - Core goods prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month in February, down from 0.3% in January [3][11] - Used car and truck prices fell to 0.9% from 2.2%, reflecting the fading effects of January's price spikes due to California wildfires [3][11] Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - Based on February CPI data, the Cleveland Fed anticipates core PCE to show a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [3][12] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to adjust policies in response to short-term data fluctuations, maintaining a dovish stance [3][12][13] Market Reactions - Following the release of employment and inflation data, risk-off sentiment in overseas markets eased, leading to a slight recovery in US stock indices [4][15] - The Nasdaq index rose by 1.22%, driven by the technology sector, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.49% [4][15]