服务带动通胀回落——2月美国通胀数据解读【财通宏观•陈兴团队】

Core Insights - Inflation has successfully retreated, with February CPI year-on-year growth falling to 2.8% and core CPI dropping to 3.1%, the lowest since May 2021 [1] - Energy prices have turned from rising to falling, with February CPI energy item year-on-year growth recorded at -0.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] - There is a risk of rebound in commodity prices, as core commodity year-on-year growth remained flat at -0.1%, but certain categories like furniture and clothing have shown an increase [3] Inflation Trends - Core service inflation continues to ease, with February core service year-on-year growth at 4.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [4] - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with the one-year expectation increasing to 4.3%, the highest since November 2023, driven by concerns over economic policies [5] - Expectations for interest rate cuts have briefly increased following the inflation data release, but concerns over potential re-inflation due to tariffs have tempered these expectations [6]