【国金电新】风电叶片深度：提价逻辑顺畅，看好行业量利齐升

Core Viewpoint - The wind turbine blade industry is expected to benefit from a favorable supply-demand relationship, a relatively stable industry structure, and rising raw material costs, leading to price and profit recovery [9][34]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The wind turbine blade segment is projected to experience a tight supply-demand balance, with domestic wind power demand expected to reach 115 GW in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 32% [10][34]. - The domestic blade production capacity is estimated at 117 GW by 2024, indicating a tight supply situation as the demand aligns closely with capacity [11][34]. - The trend towards larger wind turbines is accelerating, with the proportion of 8 MW and above turbine installations expected to exceed 30% by 2025, creating a structural shortage of large blades [14][15]. Group 2: Price Recovery and Profitability - Wind turbine prices have stabilized and are on an upward trend, which supports price increases in the blade segment. The weighted average bid prices for mainstream turbine models have increased by 9% and 8% respectively [21][24]. - The profitability of blade manufacturers is expected to improve due to enhanced bargaining power, cost pass-through, and structural optimization, with raw material costs projected to rise by 15-20% [31][36]. - The recovery in blade prices is anticipated to be significant, driven by tight supply conditions and increased utilization rates, potentially leading to profit margins exceeding expectations [36]. Group 3: Material and Production Insights - Glass fiber, a critical raw material for wind turbine blades, constitutes about 21% of blade costs and is expected to see a demand increase of 33% by 2025 due to the growth in wind power installations [28][30]. - The production of wind turbine blades is capital and labor-intensive, with a typical production cycle of about one year for new capacity, limiting short-term supply elasticity [12][17]. - The competitive landscape for glass fiber is concentrated among a few major players, which may limit short-term supply increases but also supports price recovery [29][30]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The industry is advised to focus on leading third-party blade manufacturers with a high proportion of large blade capacity and established customer resources, such as Zhongcai Technology [34].