欧洲的“觉醒”对全球配置的影响（民生宏观邵翔）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the US dollar index, which has fallen to around 103, indicating a potential end to its "epic rise" and suggesting that a turning point may have been reached in the first quarter of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Index and Global Impact - The dollar index's fluctuations are a result of international balance of payments rather than a cause, with recent trends showing a return of global funds to the US post-pandemic, supported by interest rate arbitrage and AI narratives [2]. - The article highlights that the dollar's decline may be nearing its end, with 100 being a strong support level, and warns of a potential short-term rebound [3]. Group 2: European Fiscal Awakening - The narrative of Europe's "awakening" provides a new perspective on global capital flows, but the actual implementation of increased defense spending and fiscal expansion in Europe remains uncertain [2][4]. - The proposed establishment of a €500 billion infrastructure fund in Germany and changes to fiscal constraints could signify a shift away from austerity, marking a potential end to the era of fiscal tightening in the EU [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Repricing - Current pricing indicates that the 10-year German bond yield above 2.8% is reasonable, with expectations of a return to expansion in European manufacturing [4]. - The article notes that the market has been adjusting its expectations for EU and German growth rates, particularly in light of unexpected developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The article identifies significant risks for European countries with high debt levels, such as France, Italy, and Spain, as they face increased defense spending without a unified fiscal framework [8][12]. - The lack of a strong central authority in the EU complicates fiscal decisions, with potential obstacles arising from differing national interests and the need for unanimous agreement among member states [9][10]. Group 5: Scenarios for Future Developments - Three potential scenarios for addressing the risks associated with increased defense spending are outlined: the European Central Bank initiating bond purchases, the establishment of a unified bond tool by the EU, or the failure of the defense spending plan due to lack of parliamentary support [13].