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基金策略|港股资金行为与金融产品梳理
中信证券研究·2025-03-13 00:22

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has entered a structural bull market in early 2025, driven by multiple factors including the innovation of DeepSeek large models, policy catalysts, continuous inflow of southbound funds, and the undervaluation of Hong Kong stocks in the global market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Drivers - The Chinese technology sector is being re-evaluated globally, with the emergence of domestic open-source large models like DeepSeek prompting investors to reassess China's position in technological transformation [2]. - The structural bull market in Hong Kong stocks is supported by significant inflows of southbound funds, a return of foreign capital, and the recovery of valuations in the Hong Kong market [2][3]. Group 2: Southbound Fund Dynamics - Since the launch of the southbound trading mechanism, cumulative net inflows from southbound funds have exceeded 40 billion HKD, establishing them as a core pillar of liquidity in the Hong Kong market [3]. - Southbound fund inflows exhibit a "dumbbell" configuration, with one end focusing on growth assets like consumer internet, technology leaders, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while the other end increases holdings in high-dividend sectors such as finance, telecommunications, and energy [3][4]. Group 3: Fund Management and Investment Tools - The expansion of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect mechanism and the continuous improvement of policy support have enriched the channels and tools for investors to participate in the Hong Kong market [5]. - The number of domestic active and passive funds investing in Hong Kong stocks has reached 472 and 196 respectively, with total management scales of 459.1 billion and 348.79 billion HKD [6]. Group 4: Fund Performance and Strategy - Active Hong Kong funds have shown significant excess returns, primarily driven by position control and rebalancing trading capabilities, while stock selection has contributed negatively to excess returns [7]. - A "dumbbell" fund portfolio has been constructed to meet investor demand for technology growth and dividend value investments in Hong Kong stocks [7].