【招银研究|海外宏观】美联储或将重启宽松——美国CPI通胀数据点评（2025年2月）

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the February CPI inflation data in the U.S. fell below market expectations, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy as the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts in the middle of the year [1][2][8]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The February CPI inflation rate decreased to 2.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while core CPI fell to 3.1%, also down 0.2 percentage points, marking a new low in the current inflation cycle [2][8]. - The decline in inflation marks the end of a four-month rebound, with commodity prices driving volatility and service prices dictating the overall trend [2]. - Consumer confidence has significantly weakened, with the University of Michigan's consumer expectations index dropping to 64.7, the lowest since December 2023, leading to a steep decline in U.S. goods consumption [2][4]. - Core goods prices saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, with energy goods dropping 2.8 percentage points to -0.9% [2][4]. Service Price Dynamics - Service prices continue to be supported by housing costs and wage growth, with core service prices decreasing by 0.2 percentage points to 4.1% year-on-year [4][8]. - Housing inflation remains resilient, with rent inflation stable at 0.3% month-on-month and year-on-year growth above 4% [4][8]. - Wage growth in the private service sector remains strong at 4.1%, contributing to sustained non-housing service inflation at 3.9% [4][8]. Forward-Looking Inflation Expectations - Inflation is expected to remain above the 2% target, with an anticipated average around 3% for the year, influenced by tariff impacts and fluctuating oil and used car prices [8][11]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to restart rate cuts mid-year, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points due to a projected decline in fiscal space [11][12]. Investment Strategy - The article recommends taking long positions in U.S. Treasuries, suggesting entry points at approximately 4.3% for 5-year yields and 4.5% for 10-year yields, given the likelihood of renewed monetary easing [14][15]. - The market's reaction to lower-than-expected inflation has been muted, with a slight increase in U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities [14][15].