提高个税起征点vs增加退税，你选哪个？

Core Viewpoint - The ultimate goal of individual income tax reform is to create a system that stimulates market vitality while safeguarding social bottom lines [1][30]. Group 1: Tax Reform Context - The current individual income tax structure in China relies heavily on wage income, accounting for about 60% of total tax revenue, with the remainder coming from property transfers, interest, dividends, and business income [3]. - There is increasing public demand to raise the individual income tax threshold and reduce the tax burden on the middle-income group to enhance disposable income and stimulate consumption [4][3]. - Historical adjustments to the tax threshold have occurred approximately every five years, with the last increase in 2018 setting the threshold at 5,000 yuan per month [8][9]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Raising the tax threshold must balance residents' living costs with the sustainability of fiscal revenue; excessive increases could lead to significant revenue losses and pressure on local finances [16]. - In 2024, individual income tax revenue is projected at 1.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, with many provinces experiencing negative growth in tax revenue [16][17]. - The decline in tax revenue is attributed to increased deductions for education and elder care, a sluggish real estate market, and shrinking profits in certain industries [18]. Group 3: International Comparisons - International experiences from countries like the U.S., Japan, and Germany provide insights into potential reforms, emphasizing dynamic adjustments and family-oriented tax structures [21][22][24]. - The U.S. system adjusts tax thresholds annually based on inflation, while Japan allows for detailed deductions based on family circumstances, which could be adapted to China's context [22][24]. - Germany's family coefficient method allows for income splitting, which can lead to significant tax savings for families, suggesting a potential model for reform in China [24]. Group 4: Proposed Reforms - Suggestions from various representatives during the recent sessions include raising the tax threshold, implementing higher standards in high-cost areas, and introducing family joint filing systems [28]. - Proposed new deductions include those for childcare and elder care, reflecting the growing financial pressures on families [28]. - The focus of tax adjustments should primarily benefit middle to high-income earners, with a need for dynamic evaluation frameworks to assess the impact of reforms [30].