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穿越周期的底层规律—中国大类资产投资2024年报
雪球·2025-03-14 07:49

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical performance of China's A-share market and its underlying patterns, comparing them with the U.S. stock market, and emphasizes the importance of long-term data in guiding investment decisions [1][2][16]. Group 1: Historical Performance and Patterns - The historical annualized return of China's A-share market from 2004 to 2023 is reported at 9.61%, which some believe is inflated due to the low starting point in 2004 [10]. - The analysis shows that 2004 was not the historical low point for A-share valuations, as both P/E and P/B ratios were higher in 2004 than in 2024, indicating that returns from valuation changes were negative [13][16]. - The article asserts that long-term returns across various asset classes can outpace inflation, with stocks yielding the highest returns, closely tied to economic growth [16][18]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The current low performance of the stock market may represent a cyclical undervaluation, presenting a potential investment opportunity if historical patterns hold true [2]. - In 2024, large-cap stocks, long-term government bonds, long-term credit bonds, and gold have shown significantly higher returns compared to historical averages, while small-cap stocks and short-term government bonds have underperformed [19][20]. - The article highlights that 70% of the 9.38% return from long-term government bonds in 2024 was due to price appreciation from declining interest rates, raising questions about future bond yield expectations [22]. Group 3: Individual Stock Investment Insights - The analysis of investing in individual stocks reveals that concentrating on a single stock yields an average return of only 3.92%, significantly lower than the overall market return [28]. - Diversifying by increasing the number of stocks held improves average returns and reduces volatility, suggesting that reducing reliance on individual stock selection can enhance investment outcomes [28][32]. - The article emphasizes that many investors overestimate their knowledge of specific companies and the market, leading to suboptimal investment results [30][31].