半导体行业观察·2025-03-14 00:53Core Viewpoint - Taiwan authorities reaffirmed the "N-1" rule for TSMC's investment in the U.S., which mandates that Taiwanese companies can only use one generation older technology when establishing overseas facilities compared to those in Taiwan [2][3]. Group 1: TSMC's U.S. Investment - TSMC's $100 billion investment in the U.S. is subject to the "N-1" rule, meaning advanced processes in Taiwan must be followed by one generation older processes in the U.S. [2][3]. - TSMC's 2nm semiconductor production is set to begin trial production in Taiwan this year, with U.S. production expected around 2028, lagging by at least 48 months [4]. - TSMC is considering joint ventures with major U.S. semiconductor companies like Intel, Nvidia, and AMD, which could enhance its control over yield management [4][6]. Group 2: Impact on Samsung - Experts warn that if TSMC forms joint ventures with U.S. chip design companies, Samsung's foundry business could face severe risks, leading to an inevitable decline in market share [6][9]. - TSMC's market share rose to 67.1% in Q4 2024, while Samsung's dropped from 9.1% to 8.1% [9]. - Samsung's foundry division reported an operating loss exceeding 2 trillion KRW (approximately $14 billion) in Q4 2024, highlighting its struggles in the competitive landscape [11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global top ten foundry companies achieved a total revenue of $38.4 billion in Q4, a 9.9% increase quarter-on-quarter, with TSMC producing about 90% of advanced chips [10]. - The demand for AI chips is increasing, which could further challenge Samsung's foundry business as major industry players collaborate to secure orders [7][10]. - Samsung's new chip manufacturing facility in Texas is nearing completion, but its operational timeline has been pushed to 2025 due to customer acquisition challenges [13].