霍华德·马克斯：如果你认为能准确预测市场，那你就是一个傻瓜，不要为一种结果做准备

Core Insights - The key to investment success lies not in buying good companies, but in buying at the right time [2][9] - Unique success can only be achieved by doing what others are unwilling to do, and ensuring positive outcomes [11] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The main challenge is not how to exit a successful investment, but how to patiently hold onto an unsuccessful one [3][13] - Strong psychological resilience and emotional control are essential for executing investment strategies [13] - Selling decisions should not be based solely on price fluctuations; a thorough re-evaluation of the investment is necessary [4][15] Group 2: Market Cycles - Market cycles are inevitable, stemming from excessive behaviors that are often emotional and psychological [5][18] - The reality of economic fluctuations is minor compared to the significant volatility in stock prices driven by investor emotions [19][20] - Recognizing the traps of overconfidence is crucial for navigating market cycles [17][21] Group 3: Uncertainty and Preparation - There is no certainty in the investment industry; acknowledging what is unknown is vital for success [6][21][25] - Successful preparation involves being ready for a range of outcomes rather than a single predicted scenario [29][27] - The importance of intellectual humility is emphasized, as believing one knows everything can lead to failure [26][25]