玻璃价格跌跌不休——实体经济图谱 2025年第9期【财通宏观 陈兴团队】

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates rising gold and copper prices, while oil prices remain volatile [1] - Domestic demand shows mixed performance with service consumption slowing down, but real estate and passenger car sales are recovering [1][4] - External demand is affected by ongoing US tariff wars, although South Korea's export growth has improved recently [2][14] Domestic Demand - Post-holiday service demand has decreased, with adverse weather conditions impacting visitor numbers at attractions like Shanghai Disneyland and hotel occupancy rates [1][11] - New home sales in 42 cities have shown a narrowing decline in growth rates, primarily driven by first and second-tier cities, while second-hand home sales in 19 cities have slightly decreased [1][9] - Retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars have significantly increased due to offline auto shows and new car launches [1][10] External Demand - The US tariff war continues, with plans to impose additional tariffs on Europe and recent tariffs on Canadian agricultural products [1][14] - South Korea's export growth has rebounded in the first ten days of the month, supported by improvements in manufacturing PMI across multiple countries, suggesting a potential shift from decline to growth in exports [2][16] Production - Manufacturing activity is gradually recovering, with a balanced labor market emerging [3][23] - Steel production has increased, and the operating rates for asphalt and cement have risen, while glass demand remains weak, leading to rising inventories and falling prices [4][20] Commodity Prices - Gold prices have reached new highs after consolidation, copper prices are rising, and oil prices are fluctuating; domestic steel and coal prices continue to decline, while cement prices are on the rise [5][26] - Market expectations for a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut have been fueled by US stock performance and CPI data, alongside uncertainties from tariff policies [5][28] Future Focus - Attention will be on upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve meetings [6]