申万宏观·周度研究成果（3.8-3.14）

Group 1: Hot Topics - The article discusses the potential economic scenarios for the U.S., questioning whether it will face "stagflation" or recession [7][22] - The recent "late spring cold" phenomenon has had a limited impact on agricultural output and prices, with controllable effects on investment and retail sales [5][4] Group 2: In-depth Research - The article highlights that policy measures aimed at alleviating supply bottlenecks are underestimated by the market, focusing on "consumption-based infrastructure" and breaking consumption supply constraints [8] - A deep analysis of the 2025 fiscal budget is presented, emphasizing its role in addressing economic cycle bottlenecks [8] Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The article notes that the "Spring Festival adjustment" is not the main reason for the export slowdown; rather, the end of the "export rush" is crucial [9] - Inflation readings have significantly declined due to the Spring Festival misalignment, with actual levels still remaining weak after adjustments [10] - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI fell in February, and the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points [11] - Domestic construction activity has seen a decline, indicating a slowdown in the construction industry [12][13] - The central government has reserved ample fiscal space for future policies [14]