越南撤县并省，真正的大变局来了

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam is undergoing significant administrative reforms, including the reduction of provincial units by approximately 50% and the elimination of county-level administrative units, signaling a major shift in governance and economic strategy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Administrative Reforms - Vietnam plans to cut the number of provincial administrative units from 63 to a significantly lower number, reflecting a need for streamlined governance [6][12]. - The reform will eliminate around 100,000 public sector jobs, which is about 20% of the total public positions, indicating a substantial reduction in bureaucratic overhead [3][19]. - The current administrative structure consists of a three-tier system (province-county-commune), which will be simplified to a two-tier system (province-commune) [17][18]. Group 2: Economic Context - Vietnam's GDP reached approximately $476.3 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.09%, positioning it among the fastest-growing economies in Asia [33][39]. - The government has set an ambitious economic growth target of 8% for 2025, up from a previous target of 6.5%-7.0% [32]. - Vietnam aims to become a high-income country by 2045, requiring a doubling of its GDP over the next 20 years, which necessitates sustained growth rates of 6%-8% [34][38]. Group 3: Global Positioning - Vietnam is strategically positioned to benefit from global industrial shifts and geopolitical changes, enhancing its attractiveness for foreign investment [41][42]. - The country is actively engaging in international trade agreements, such as RCEP and CPTPP, to strengthen its economic ties with major economies [44]. - Vietnam's "Doi Moi" reforms, akin to China's reforms, aim to revitalize its economy through both economic and political changes [46][48]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite its growth, Vietnam's GDP is still lower than that of individual Chinese provinces, and its per capita GDP is only $4,700, which is less than one-third of China's [50][51]. - The manufacturing sector remains heavily reliant on foreign investment, lacking a complete industrial base [51]. - The potential for growth is significant, as Vietnam's current economic trajectory mirrors the early stages of China's economic rise [53].