债市反弹！调整到位了？

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown significant signs of recovery since March 12, following a period of substantial adjustment and negative sentiment that peaked on March 11 [1][3][5]. Market Performance - The bond market experienced a strong rebound on March 12, with the China Bond Index ending a six-day decline and achieving a bottom rebound [5][6]. - As of March 12, the average increase for medium- to long-term pure bond funds reached 0.08%, while the China Bond Index rebounded by 0.16% [6]. - The bond market had faced considerable adjustments earlier in the year, with the China Bond Index recording a maximum drawdown of 1.83% on March 11, marking the largest drawdown in nearly four years [9][10]. Investor Behavior - Some institutional investors chose to "cut losses" on March 11, unable to tolerate ongoing declines, which resulted in significant redemptions from several funds [2][7]. - A specific institution that invested heavily in a low-risk credit bond fund faced nearly a 1% loss within a quarter, prompting their exit just before the market rebound [7]. Market Outlook - There is a consensus among institutions that the bond market has largely adjusted, with some assets now presenting attractive value for investment [1][14]. - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustment has reached a normal range, with short-term and credit bond yields rising by approximately 40-60 basis points, while long-term rates increased by 20-25 basis points [13]. - The future trajectory of the bond market is expected to be influenced by fundamental economic conditions and market liquidity [13][14]. Investment Strategy - Current market conditions may provide a favorable opportunity for investment, with suggestions to adopt a contrarian approach during periods of volatility [16]. - It is recommended to focus on short-term and credit bonds, which are perceived to have higher value after recent adjustments [17].