【广发宏观团队】面对逆全球化贸易环境：同与不同

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the current global trade environment on China's economy, highlighting differences from previous trade conflicts and emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and structural adjustments in response to external pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Global Trade Environment - The current trade environment is characterized by a more diversified trade structure for China, with the proportion of exports to the US decreasing from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.0% in early 2025, indicating improved expectations among enterprises [1][2]. - The article notes that the current round of de-globalization differs from the past, as it is not marked by unilateral trade conflicts but rather a systemic uncertainty affecting global supply chains [2]. Group 2: Domestic Market Performance - In the second week of March, over 90% of domestic industries recorded gains, with a shift towards domestic demand and dividend-driven sectors, as evidenced by a 1.49% increase in the Wande All A index [3][5]. - The consumer sector, particularly in beauty care, food and beverage, and coal, led the gains with weekly increases of 8.2%, 6.2%, and 4.8% respectively [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The article reports that the actual and nominal GDP growth rates for the first quarter are projected to be 5.22% and 4.51% respectively, with expectations for industrial production growth to rise to 5.9% in March [8]. - The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show a slight increase of 0.24% year-on-year, while the producer price index (PPI) is projected to decline by 2.17% year-on-year [8]. Group 4: Financial and Investment Climate - The liquidity situation remains stable, with narrow fluctuations in short-term interest rates, while the total social financing is expected to expand, indicating a supportive environment for investment [9][10]. - The issuance of local government bonds for debt replacement is progressing rapidly, with a completion rate of 60%, although project-based bonds still require improvement [10]. Group 5: Consumer Policy Impact - The introduction of childcare subsidies is anticipated to boost consumer spending by approximately 0.1-0.3 percentage points, with the government planning to issue substantial subsidies for families with children [11]. - The estimated annual subsidy funding could range from 200 to 1200 billion yuan, which would significantly impact related industries and long-term economic growth [11].