彭博中国固收指数月报 | 房地产板块回报率由负转正；中美债市收益率差有望利好熊猫债

Core Insights - Bloomberg is the first global index provider to include Chinese bonds in mainstream global indices, offering a unique perspective on the Chinese bond market [1] - The Bloomberg China Aggregate Index experienced a negative return of -0.69% in February 2025, reversing the positive returns seen at the beginning of the year [3] - The 30-day volatility of the index slightly decreased from 1.21% at the end of January to 1.18% in February [3] Index Performance - The China Aggregate Index recorded a year-to-date return of -0.40% as of February, with various sub-indices showing mixed performance [4] - The China Treasury and Policy Banks Index had a return of -0.71% for the month, while the China Corporate Index reported a -0.26% return [4] - The 10+ Year bonds showed the worst performance with a return of -1.39% for the month [4] Currency Performance - The year-to-date return for the renminbi-denominated bonds was -0.47%, while the dollar-denominated bonds had a return of -0.25%, ranking 25th out of 27 currencies in the global composite index [3] Market Trends - The preference for U.S. Treasury bonds may benefit Chinese bonds, particularly government bonds, as it could support the yield premium after hedging against the dollar [9] - Recent refinancing activities in the real estate sector have improved the returns of high-yield Chinese real estate bonds, with a year-to-date return of 1.99% in February, recovering from -5.11% in January [9] - The Chinese government's recent actions indicate a commitment to stabilizing the market, which may positively impact the returns in the real estate sector [9]