联邦快递第三季度收益预测：风险太大，难以乐观

Core Viewpoint - FedEx is expected to report its Q3 earnings on March 20, with analysts predicting adjusted EPS of $4.64, a 20.2% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $21.89 billion, a 0.71% growth [1] Financial Performance - Following the Q1 earnings report on September 20, FedEx's total return has been -3.89%, compared to the S&P 500's -1.12% [1] - In Q2, FedEx achieved $540 million in cost savings and aims for $2.2 billion in savings by FY2025 [1] - The trend of EPS revisions has been downward in recent years, indicating analyst skepticism about meeting EPS forecasts [1][2] Revenue Insights - International revenue accounted for $4.988 billion, or 22.75% of total revenue in Q2, highlighting the impact of tariffs on international shipping costs [4] - Consumer confidence is low, which may lead to reduced spending, negatively affecting FedEx's cyclical business [6] Market Expectations - The market is looking for updates on the proposed freight business spin-off, which analysts believe could create significant value [7][8] - Stifel analyst J. Bruce Chan estimates over a 50% chance of a spin-off, potentially adding $100 to the stock price [9] Business Segmentation - The freight business has a higher operating profit margin of 19.3% compared to the overall business margin of 7.5% [10][11] - FedEx's freight segment is the largest LTL pure-play business, suggesting it could achieve a premium valuation as a standalone entity [11] Valuation Metrics - FedEx shares are currently trading at 12.6 times FY2025 earnings, 10.7 times FY2026 earnings, and 9.45 times FY2027 earnings, indicating a relatively low valuation [12] - The expected P/E ratio of 11.4 is slightly below the 10-year average, suggesting potential value [13] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts express caution, preferring a larger margin of safety before considering positions, especially given the uncertainty surrounding EPS, revenue, and free cash flow revisions [14] - The potential risks outweigh the rewards entering the Q3 earnings report, with analysts not believing the stock has strong upside potential at this time [15]