全球宏观资产晴雨气候表：本周股、债、商品交易状态有何判定？

Global Macro Market - The market continues to speculate on the "East Rising, West Declining" narrative; US stock valuations are high, and the uncertainty brought by Trump's policies is expected to prevent US stocks from reaching new highs in the first half of 2025 [1] - Although the fundamentals of the Chinese economy have not yet reversed, the Chinese stock market is experiencing bullish momentum due to a series of policy enhancements and sustained expectation guidance, with Hong Kong stocks leading [1] - The foreign exchange market's volatility continues to reflect the pricing adjustments due to geopolitical uncertainties, with a focus on country-specific interest rate differentials and marginal developments in relative liquidity [1] Chinese Futures Market - In financial products, multiple stock indices and short positions on government bonds show high macro certainty, with strong market price behavior alignment; currently, small-cap indices remain relatively strong, while large-cap indices have recently shown strong upward breakout signs, indicating a potential style switch [2] - In terms of commodities, particularly industrial products, excluding those affected by supply chain disruptions, the demand side continues to price according to macroeconomic fundamentals, reflected in the market where industrial categories (energy, chemicals, ferrous metals, etc.) show significant overall weakness [2]