开年经济数据成色几何？——1-2月经济数据解读【财通宏观•陈兴团队】

Core Viewpoints - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that industrial production slightly declined in January-February, while investment and consumption showed an upward trend, and real estate prices continued to stabilize [1][8] - External demand for exports decreased due to factors such as the Spring Festival misalignment, tariff increases, and high base effects, but short-term export support remains due to uncertainties in U.S. tariffs and low base effects next month [1] - Domestic demand saw a rebound in both investment and consumption, with improvements in real estate investment and sustained high levels of manufacturing investment, although infrastructure investment showed a decline [1][5] Industrial Production - Industrial production growth slightly decreased to 5.9% year-on-year in January-February, with a low year-on-year growth rate compared to previous years [2] - The mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors showed value-added growth rates of 4.3%, 6.9%, and 1.1% respectively, with equipment manufacturing growing by 10.6% [2] - The production index for services decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 5.6% year-on-year, with notable growth in information transmission, software, and financial services [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth increased by 1.9 percentage points to 4.1% year-on-year, with real estate investment decline narrowing to -9.8% due to improved operations of real estate companies [5] - Manufacturing investment rose to 9%, driven by high-tech and equipment upgrades, with significant growth in sectors like information services and aerospace manufacturing [5] - Infrastructure investment showed mixed results, with old-caliber infrastructure growth rising to 9.9% while new-caliber investment fell to 5.6% [5] Consumption Patterns - Retail sales growth increased to 4% in January-February, with significant contributions from essential consumer goods, while service retail growth declined to 4.9% [6] - The consumption of essential goods rose by 1.9 percentage points to 6.4%, while discretionary goods saw a decline [6] - Recent consumer stimulus policies are expected to benefit sectors such as health, elderly care, and education [6] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area growth declined by 5.1% year-on-year, with new construction area declines expanding to -29.6% [7] - Despite a decrease in sales volume, real estate prices continued to rise, indicating a stabilization in the market [7][10] - The average price index for new and second-hand homes in major cities showed a narrowing decline [10]