经济“开门红”: 预期与现实（民生宏观陶川团队）

Core Viewpoint - The economic "opening red" in January-February 2025 is characterized by a relatively realistic expectation of faster improvement, but the sustainability of this trend is worth exploring [1] Economic Overview - The expectations for the economic fundamentals of China and the US have reversed since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the situation at the start of last year. Overall, China's economic stabilization and recovery cannot be deemed strong, but the "weakness of the US" has reinforced positive feedback in market expectations and reality, likely improving confidence in the capital market in the short term [1] - The current economic recovery has not deviated from the seasonal rebound experienced in recent years during the first quarter. The "opening red" is primarily driven by central government investment in infrastructure, while the manufacturing sector is supported by the technology sector. However, the rising trend in housing prices in first-tier cities has not continued [2] Demand and Consumption - Insufficient effective demand is reflected in the divergence between commodity consumption and service production. The "two new" policies have supported a continued recovery in retail sales growth, increasing from 3.7% in December 2024 to 4.0% in January-February 2025. However, the service production index has declined from 6.5% in December 2024 to 5.6% in January-February 2025, indicating potential adjustments in retail data that may inflate commodity consumption performance [2] - The "old-for-new" policy has continued to stimulate retail sales growth, particularly in categories related to communication equipment, home appliances, and cultural office supplies. Basic living goods, such as food and oil, have also seen rapid growth due to the Spring Festival. However, issues such as weak service prices and intense competition in the automotive sector still suppress retail sales in related categories [7] Industrial and Manufacturing Insights - The industrial production growth rate for January-February was 5.9%, slightly down from 6.2% in December 2024. However, the seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth in February was 0.51%, indicating a faster-than-expected start to industrial production this year, particularly driven by high-tech industries [3] - Manufacturing investment growth in January-February reached 9.0%, up from 8.3% in December 2024. The growth in manufacturing is increasingly led by "new quality" industries, such as automotive manufacturing and electronic equipment, reflecting a wave of emphasis on technology from central to local governments [4] Infrastructure and Investment - The "opening red" in infrastructure is primarily supported by central government investment. The broad and narrow definitions of infrastructure growth have shown divergence, with broad infrastructure growth rising to 9.95% from 7.4% in December 2024, while narrow infrastructure growth fell to 5.6% from 6.3% in December 2024 [5] - Short-term challenges exist for local investment in infrastructure, as the issuance of new special bonds remains slow, and high-frequency indicators related to infrastructure construction show low asphalt operating rates compared to historical levels [6] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector has shown improvement in investment and completion rates due to the effects of previous policies. The "926" policy package has led to continuous improvement in real estate financing since the fourth quarter of last year, with commodity housing sales also recovering. However, the market still requires ongoing policy support to stabilize, as second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities have shown a month-on-month decline, and the sales area of commodity housing has decreased [8]