【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】对顺周期的冷静思考

Group 1 - The article emphasizes a short-term optimistic policy narrative, leading to a perfect spring market rally, with local governments actively promoting consumption and incentives for private enterprises, supported by financial backing from both central and local authorities [1][2] - The "East rises, West falls" macro narrative has a strong public foundation, with foreign capital actively participating in domestic consumption stimulus, enhancing optimistic expectations for foreign capital inflow [1][2] - The market anticipates a potential reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates due to weak credit growth in January and February, indicating a shift towards liquidity easing [2] Group 2 - Economic outlook suggests a natural decline in export growth by Q2 2025, compounded by U.S. tariffs on China, which may lead to significant fluctuations in economic expectations [3] - The current spring rally faces the "April decision" test, with the need for demand-side stimulus to resonate with supply-side adjustments, indicating that 2026 may be a critical window for supply clearance in the A-share midstream manufacturing sector [3][4] - The article maintains a mid-term positive outlook on the technology sector, with ongoing recommendations for investments in domestic AI computing, humanoid robotics, and low-altitude economy [4][5] Group 3 - The short-term recovery of cyclical expectations is driven by consumption, with factors such as consumption stimulation, fertility incentives, and foreign capital preferences contributing to this trend [4][5] - The article notes that while the technology sector remains dominant in the mid-term, potential triggers for adjustments include significant macroeconomic fluctuations and the slow emergence of blockbuster applications in AI [5] - The sentiment indicators show a broadening profit effect across various sectors, with notable expansions in beauty care, defense, computing, and non-ferrous metals [7]