【申万宏源策略】美国衰退预期发酵，资金流出美股流入欧股——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250307-20250315)

Global Asset Price Review - The recent comments from U.S. Commerce Secretary regarding tariffs have heightened concerns about a potential economic recession, leading to a decline in global equity markets while commodity prices generally increased [1][6]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 1 basis point to 4.31%, and the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.15% to 103.7 [1][6]. - The performance of global equity markets varied, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.59%, while the S&P 500 dropped by 2.27% [1][6]. Global Fund Flows - There was a notable shift in global fund flows, with money moving out of U.S. equities and into European stocks, alongside inflows into money market funds and government bonds [2][12]. - In the past week, domestic investors withdrew $18.2 million from the Chinese stock market, while foreign investors added $9.7 million [2][12][14]. Global Asset Valuation - The economic recession expectations in the U.S. have led to significant adjustments in U.S. equity valuations, with the equity risk premium (ERP) for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increasing, while China's asset ERP has decreased [3][9]. - The historical ERP for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index stands at 12%, indicating relatively low valuations compared to the rising ERP of U.S. indices [3][9]. Global Asset Risk Indicators - The proportion of retail investors bullish on U.S. stocks has reached a historical low, while bullish sentiment among A-share investors remains strong [4][11]. - The CBOE volatility index has increased, reflecting heightened market uncertainty, while the Shanghai Composite Index's options market shows a strong bullish sentiment [4][11]. Global Macro Economic Observations - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 in February, indicating a weakening manufacturing sector, while inflation rates are showing signs of decline [5][10]. - In contrast, China's manufacturing PMI and new orders PMI have shown marginal improvement, remaining above the expansion threshold [5][10].