中金：澳大利亚—新型电力系统发展前沿，风光储需求加速

Core Viewpoint - Australia is at the forefront of developing a new power system, with a high proportion of wind and solar power generation, reaching 28.14% in 2023. The non-interconnected nature of its grid presents significant challenges as the share of renewable energy increases [1]. Group 1: Demand Side Transformation - The demand for wind and solar energy in Australia is primarily driven by the electrification, hydrogen energy, and electric vehicle development, rather than a typical shortage of electricity seen in developing countries. The projected CAGR for electricity demand from 2024 to 2050 is approximately 1.93%, with significant growth rates of 13%, 18%, and 27% for electrification, hydrogen, and electric vehicles respectively [3][4]. - The total electricity demand in Australia for 2023 is estimated at 273 TWh, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.54% over the past five years. By 2030, total electricity demand is expected to reach 304 TWh, with a CAGR of 1.81% from 2024 to 2030 [5][6]. Group 2: Generation Side Characteristics - The cost of solar and storage has reached a parity point in 2024, with the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar plus storage estimated at approximately 0.056-0.086 AUD/kWh, which is lower than coal and gas costs [7]. - The proportion of renewable energy generation is expected to increase significantly, with projections indicating that by 2030, renewable energy will account for 82% of total generation, potentially exceeding 90% by 2033 [10]. Group 3: Policy Framework and Trends - The energy transition policy in Australia is accelerating, with a clear target for clean energy transformation. The actual pace of transition may exceed government expectations due to increasing regulatory demands and the need for flexible energy resources [8][9]. - The retirement of coal-fired power plants is occurring at an accelerated pace, with all coal plants expected to close by 2037, five years earlier than previous estimates [12]. Group 4: Market Characteristics - The Australian electricity market is characterized by high volatility in wholesale prices due to the lack of a capacity market and price caps. This has led to frequent negative pricing and challenges in recovering investments in coal power plants [17][18]. - The minimum demand for electricity has reached historical lows, with extreme price fluctuations becoming more common. The price cap for the wholesale market is set to increase significantly over the next few years [18]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The largest market growth is expected in centralized storage, with a CAGR of 42.9% from 2025 to 2030. The charging station market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 44.8% during the same period [19][20][22]. - Hydrogen energy is anticipated to become a significant market by 2030, with production expected to reach 50,000 tons, translating to a market size of approximately 39 billion AUD [21].